Expiring Eviction Moratoriums and COVID-19 Incidence and Mortality
Table of Contents
Table of Contents
Report Publish Date: July 26, 2021
This journal article describes a study of the link between eviction moratoriums and prevention of COVID-19 infections and deaths.
Primary Takeaways
After state eviction moratoriums expired, COVID-19 infections doubled and COVID-19 deaths increased five-fold over a 16-week period.
Overview and Objectives
During the COVID-19 pandemic, millions of households were at risk of being evicted from their homes. Forty-three states and the District of Columbia put a moratorium on evictions at the start of the pandemic; many of these expired before the CDC issued a federal moratorium that started September 4, 2020.
“These state and federal orders were based on the premise that halting evictions could prevent the spread of COVID-19,” the authors write, by preventing overcrowding in homes, enabling social distancing, and keeping people from having to take on risky jobs to avoid eviction. The authors wanted to know if this premise was correct.
Hypothesis or Approach
The authors expected to find associations between the end of state eviction moratoriums and a rise in COVID-19 infections and deaths in each state. Their sample included states that had policies to stop evictions at any time between March 13, 2020, and September 3, 2020.
A legal team reviewed public orders to determine the start and end dates of moratoriums, using data from the COVID-19 Eviction Moratoria and Housing Policy database. The authors determined numbers of COVID-19 cases and deaths using Johns Hopkins Center for Systems Science and Engineering COVID-19 time series data.
The researchers conducted a difference-in-difference analysis. They also tested the sensitivity of their results and controlled for reopening of bars and restaurants.
How This Influences Change
This study shows that having enough affordable housing is an important part of pandemic preparedness and health equity.
Research: Go Deeper
The coronavirus disease 2019 (COVID-19) pandemic and associated economic crisis have placed millions of US households at risk of eviction. Evictions may accelerate COVID-19 transmission by decreasing individuals’ ability to socially distance. We leveraged variation in the expiration of eviction moratoriums in US states to test for associations between evictions and COVID-19 incidence and mortality. The study included 44 US states that instituted eviction moratoriums, followed from March 13 to September 3, 2020. We modeled associations using a difference-in-difference approach with an event-study specification. Negative binomial regression models of cases and deaths included fixed effects for state and week and controlled for time-varying indicators of testing, stay-at-home orders, school closures, and mask mandates. COVID-19 incidence and mortality increased steadily in states after eviction moratoriums expired, and expiration was associated with a doubling of COVID-19 incidence (incidence rate ratio = 2.1; 95% confidence interval (CI): 1.1, 3.9) and a 5-fold increase in COVID-19 mortality (mortality rate ratio = 5.4; CI: 3.1, 9.3) 16 weeks after moratoriums lapsed. These results imply an estimated 433,700 excess cases (CI: 365,200, 502,200) and 10,700 excess deaths (CI: 8,900, 12,500) nationally by September 3, 2020. The expiration of eviction moratoriums was associated with increased COVID-19 incidence and mortality, supporting the public-health rationale for eviction prevention to limit COVID-19 cases and deaths.
American Journal of Epidemiology, December 2021. https://doi.org/10.1093/aje/kwab196
Figure 1 Eviction moratoriums in US states, March 13 to September 3, 2020. A) Map of US states indicating eviction moratorium status over the study period; B) change in state eviction moratorium status over time. Data from the COVID-19 Eviction Moratoria and Housing Policy database (13).
Research Team
This study and report was conducted and created by the following people.
- Leifheit KM
- Linton SL
- Raifman J
- Schwartz GL
- Benfer EA
- Zimmerman FJ
- Pollack CE
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